US mobile payments will top $142 billion by 2019, up from $52 billion this year, according to Forrester’s five-year ForecastView model. Payments are measured across three categories: 1) in-person, 2) remote, and 3) peer-to-peer. In-person payments will see the largest jump, totaling $34 billion by 2019 — a 56% compound annual growth rate (CAGR).
This growth will be fueled by merchant adoption in industries embedded with friction at checkout — such as grocery and restaurants — and merchants with high-frequency or high-volume buyers, such as Starbucks. Further, the shift to EMV chip-based cards will fuel consumers to give mobile payments a try, seeing it as the more straightforward option.
Remote payments, or mCommerce, will continue to be the largest payments category, topping $91 billion in 2019. This is where the true tech titan and incumbent competition will rise, battling to become the winning digital wallet.
Mobile peer-to-peer payments is growing faster than expected — poised to hit $17 billion in 2019, a 26% CAGR.
As for 2015 specifically, analyst Denee Carrington anticipates it to be the year of Apple Pay. The digital wallet will drive awareness for capabilities like tokenization and biometrics, while positioning itself as the solution to beat. In her 2015 predictions research, she notes: “Even if early consumer adoption is slow to ramp up, Apple’s approach for in-store and in-app payments will drive some competitors to become Apple Pay partners, yet motivate other competitors to prove they can outperform Apple Pay.”
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