I facilitated a panel on mobile video on Sunday night at the Mobile Entertainment Forum. Lots of optimism coming from the panel including predictions of up to 20 percent consumer adoption by the end of 2005.
I'm very optimistic about this market (and it's also a space that I will be researching a lot this year – we've already collected a lot of data), but I don't think the numbers will be anywhere near this high at least in 2005.
The best demo of mobile video that I've seen at the show so far is one done by my colleague Michael Gartenberg. (It's also one that he has blogged about if you look back to early 2005). He's using Orb to watch live TV streamed from his media center back in NJ. He's using a smart phone on Verizon's EV-DO service. It's really, really good. It brings up the question of whether consumers will make content purchases directly from the carriers or if they will pay for a service that allows them to access content that they already own. We'll be writing more about this later this year.
Haven't been able to get Vcast to work on my phone yet, but stay tuned.