After part 1

and part 2

, JupiterResearch just publshed the latest piece of research on long-term mobile trends in the European markets. The report "European Mobile Media Forecast, 2008 to 2013: Identifying Revenue Growth in a New and Challenging Ecosystem" is available here:

The key takeway is as follows;

Increasingly, consumers will not pay a premium for mobile content they can access for
free online through a more convenient PC/laptop experience. As a consequence, mobile paying audiences will represent a limited share of the overall mobile content audience. Mobile content will also increasingly transition to use of ad-funded revenue models. However, due to numerous niche
audiences of core users of mobile video, TV, music, and games, mobile content revenues
will grow to €5.4 billion by 2013. Despite having significantly tempered forecast on specific content categories, these forecasts are based on assumptions made about consumers’ potential
spending before the financial crisis during the third quarter of 2008. If the financial
situation filters down to the consumer economy, then discretionary spending could be hit,
thus having some downward impact on non-core telecom spending.

With mobile content revenues only partly compensating for the decline in short message
service (SMS) revenues (decreasing by €5.3 billion from 2007 to 2013), mobile operators
have no choice but to increasingly focus on mobile data access, mobile broadband and new communication revenues. They should also enable creation of an open ecosystem in which they are trusted enablers.