Prediction markets have gone from niche curiosity to mainstream phenomenon in a remarkably short time. Trading volume on leading platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket has surged over the past year, climbing from under $5 billion per month in late 2025 to roughly $24 billion by April 2026. What began largely as a tool for political forecasting has quickly expanded into sports, economics, and pop culture—turning “betting on the future” into a new form of online participation.

Now, Meta wants in, reportedly developing a standalone prediction market app, called “Arena,” and designed to compete with incumbents like Polymarket and Kalshi. Unlike those platforms, Meta’s version is expected to launch with a points-based system rather than real-money wagers (at least initially) while leaving the door open to future monetization. The app is expected to leverage Facebook and Instagram’s massive user base to drive adoption.

Should Meta Pursue This? Do Consumers Want this?

To cut through the hype, we ran an overnight poll of 509 online adults in the US, UK, and Canada using Forrester’s ConsumerVoices Market Research Online Community (MROC) to gauge awareness, perceptions, and interest in prediction market apps — and to test consumer interest in a potential Meta offering.

Consumers Call Prediction Markets Gambling

Only 18 of our 509 respondents (3.5%) currently use prediction market apps and they’re largely millennial males. Among these users, motivations center on making money, being entertained, and staying informed on current events. The rest? Awareness is limited: About 44% of respondents had never heard of prediction market apps prior to this poll.

Consumer perception is more telling. Using a sliding scale, nearly two-thirds of respondents (62%) view prediction markets as closer to “gambling,” compared to just 18% who see them as “investing.” Concerns around regulation and addiction risk dominate. As one respondent put it, prediction markets feel like “gambling but with more events to gamble on,” while another called them “a fancier way to label gambling” that could be vulnerable to insider knowledge. Without clear guardrails, respondents worry the category is “wide open” to corruption, manipulation, and financial harm.

Meta Can’t Shake Its Trust Problem

Those concerns intensify when Meta enters the equation. Just over 6% of poll respondents said they’re “very interested” in trying Meta’s prediction market app, while about 33% said Meta’s backing actually decreases their likelihood to try it. More than half (56%) say they don’t trust Meta with this type of product.

There’s one exception… sort of: Among the 18 current prediction market users, 13 (72%) expressed high interest in trying Meta’s Arena app. So, the same small group that’s already engaged in the category is open to Meta, but the broader market is notably skeptical.

*Note: This poll was administered to a random sample of 509 online adults in the US, UK, and Canada in Forrester’s qualitative ConsumerVoices online community June 23-24, 2026. This data is not weighted to be representative of total country populations.

Déjà Vu: Meta Follows Its Copycat Playbook

While prediction markets are breaking into the mainstream, especially among younger men, Meta’s entry is true to form: more reactive than strategic. That’s problematic as this is yet another market that exists before its rules do. And like Meta, this category comes with baggage. Set aside the debate over whether prediction market apps are investing or gambling — they’re designed to be habit-forming. And Meta is already facing high-profile litigation tied to concerns about addictive product design.

The irony is hard to miss. Meta is leaning into the same behavioral dynamics it’s getting backlash for. And for a company already under scrutiny and struggling to rebuild trust, that’s not a great place to be. Ultimately, for Meta, entering prediction markets is a tough bet.

Forrester clients: Let’s chat more about this via a Forrester guidance session.