In ancient Rome, mosaics adorned the floors and walls of villas, temples, and public spaces. These intricate works of art were composed of tiny cubic tesserae. Each piece, though small, contributed to a grander design. But damage to even a single tile could disrupt the harmony of the whole. Today’s global business environment is no different. Systemic risks — those external, interconnected events that ripple across industries and geographies — are the fractured tesserae threatening the integrity of the modern business mosaic.

Forrester’s new report, The Top 10 Systemic Risks, 2025, reveals a shifting pattern of concern among risk leaders. While data integrity retains its place as the most pressing systemic risk, geopolitical risk has surged from ninth to third, reflecting a world increasingly shaped by conflict, fragmentation, and regulatory unpredictability. This year’s top systemic risks report underscores that systemic risks are less like isolated cracks and more like pressure points that can shatter the entire design if left unaddressed.

The Risk Mosaic Is Fragile — And Fractures Are Spreading Due To Systemic Risk Events

  • Data cracks quietly but deeply. Data integrity remains the top concern among risk management decision-makers because its failures are often invisible until damage is done. Even non-malicious data issues can erode trust, disrupt operations, and trigger regulatory fallout.
  • Geopolitical tremors shake the whole structure. The leap of geopolitical risk from ninth to third place in one year reflects a world where cyberattacks, trade wars, and policy shifts are no longer regional; they’re systemic. Nations are not friends. They have shared interests. But events like wars, tariffs, and policy changes fundamentally shift these relationships.
  • Innovation moves faster than the grout can dry. The speed of innovation, especially in AI, is outpacing organizations’ ability to adapt. Without an AI strategy and proper risk management, companies risk embedding flawed technologies and processes into their operations and into the broader ecosystem. Innovation without governance is like expanding a mosaic before the grout dries: Its intended design is beautiful, but it’s prone to crumble under pressure.
  • Climate change is the weathering force. Climate events are not rare — they’re routine. From wildfires to flooding, these events don’t just damage assets; they reshape supply chains, insurance markets, and employee and customer expectations.
  • Supply chains hold the pieces together, but they’re easy to break. Disruptions from droughts, bridge collapses, power mishaps, and geopolitical tensions show that supply chains remain highly sensitive to other systemic risks. When even one tile weakens (e.g., a key supplier or business partner), the entire mosaic warps, revealing how dependent the whole structure is on the integrity of fragile connections.

Risk Leaders Must Bring Order To The Chaotic Environment And Restore The Mosaic

Systemic risks are not abstract threats. They are real, present, and increasingly frequent. The ability to decrease the impact of these risk events depends on purposeful identification and preparedness. Risk and security leaders must:

  • Reframe systemic risk as a business-critical issue. These risks are not “too big to manage” — they are too big to ignore.
  • Build resilience into every layer. From data governance to geopolitical threat modeling, resilience must be embedded across people, processes, and platforms.
  • Treat risk as a shared design. Just as mosaics require collaboration between artisans, systemic risk mitigation requires alignment across risk, security, operations, and executive leadership.
  • Monitor the whole picture, not just the pieces. Use centralized risk registers, scenario planning, and operational resilience tools to detect early signs of systemic stress.

Don’t wait for the cracks to show! Read the full report to understand how each systemic risk is evolving, and schedule a guidance session to discuss how your organization can stay resilient in the face of change.