[Posted by David Card]
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The Advertising Age headline reads “Future May Be Brighter, but It’s Apocalypse Now.”
CBS, the number one TV network, saw its ad revenues decline
13% in 2008, and that was before the recession really took hold. CBS’s radio
business was down 12%. The former home of “must-see TV,” NBC had two shows in
the top 20 for the week of March 30, and they were both ER. Unfortunately they
were the series finale and a retrospective. NBC will be replacing its 10PM
line-up with a Jay Leno strip because it’s cheaper than producing dramas and
It’s one thing when the Rocky Mountain News stops printing.
But the venerable New York Times might have trouble making its debt payments,
and is threatening to shut down the Boston Globe if its unions don’t cave.
Meanwhile, Oxbridge Communications’ Mediafinder says that 335 magazines
launched in North America
The most recent Forrester advertising forecast is the
Jupiter model from December (we're updating it as I type). We were projecting
negative five-year growth for US “off-line” — i.e., not online or digital —
advertising as a whole. The total spending on print and radio will be down
double digits in 2013 versus 2008. TV will be down double digits this year, but
will eventually start to grow again, probably in 2011.
Clearly, ad-based media companies are scrambling.
But what does this mean for marketers?
- Hits still matter. Sure, media’s
fragmenting, but the Super Bowl and Amercan Idol still pack ‘em in.
They’re not cheap to produce, or to buy. Joint sponsorships, crafted early
in programming development, will gain traction.
- All media is multi-media.
Audiences are demanding their content on whatever screen they want. Some
media brands have good multichannel stories (ESPN, CNN, Comedy Central,
Nickelodeon, the Wall Street Journal). But online is dominated by pure-plays
like Google and Yahoo, who don’t have cross-media capability.
- Integration might get harder. So
if you want to do cross-media integrated campaigns, you’ll have to pick
your partners well. Otherwise it’s up to media buying agencies that
generally lack creative thinking about engagement, or online ad networks powered
by robots. That’s fine for direct marketing, but how do you do engaging
- Social is the biggest thing in media.
And no one really knows how to do it yet. How can media companies harness
their fans’ creativity, use them for promotion, for distribution? There
are early examples of fun “meta media” — media about media, like
Television without Pity, TV.com, Rotten Tomatoes, and, yes, reviews on
Amazon and Netflix.
- Dis-intermediation seems unlikely.
Agency “studios” have pretty much flopped. Creating great content is an
art and a science, and I remain
skeptical that popular entertainment and information media can be created
in-house. And even then, it still needs a distribution channel. The
current media industry value chain may have some loose links, but it
doesn’t feel like it’s ready to be replaced completely.
- Branded entertainment is a must.
Which brings us back to deep partnerships and co-sponsored content. In
order to create win-win-win content
— good for marketers, good for programmers, good for audiences —
it feels like marketers and media companies have to get together sooner in
the process. Not every network can be HGTV or the Food Channel, where
product promotion and placement is a natural. It’s going to take more than
getting Jack Bauer to use a Sprint phone and a Cisco router.
I’d like to hear what you think. Stay tuned: I’m working on
a series of reports on how marketers should handle the media meltdown. And
check out my “Future of Media” panel at Forrester’s Marketing Forum in
Orlando this week