Mixed signals from the blockchain world: On the one hand, in March we saw the publication of the paper Securing Elliptic Curve Cryptocurrencies against Quantum Vulnerabilities: Resource Estimates and Mitigations, the authors of which include a member of the core Ethereum team; Solana updated its quantum safety roadmap in April.

Forward to May and one of the digital asset industry’s key events, Consensus. It featured a panel in which several speakers variously belittled the threat or made over-optimistic claims about how easy would be to make Bitcoin quantum-safe. Consensus also gave the stage to a speaker who’s has been promoting the theory that Bitcoin is safe from quantum attack because it quantizes time. No, I’m not kidding; you can download “Bitcoin: The Architecture of Time” from here and read all about it yourself.

Ignoring The Quantum Threat To Blockchains Won’t Make It Go Away

What the emphasis at Consensus should have been about: How can we make blockchains quantum safe, given that a steady and accelerating cadence of breakthroughs in quantum computing could shorten the timeline to Q-Day; estimates have been brought forward from 2035 or later to possibly as early as 2030/32. More than that: While Q-Day is typically defined as the point at which a quantum machine can break RSA-2048 encryption, it’s actually elliptic curve cryptography (ECC) that’s at greater risk. And all of today’s significant blockchains use ECC.

If you have any existing or planned involvement with digital assets or solutions with a blockchain element, the issue of quantum safety should already be on your radar screen. You may not be involved in the development, maintenance and running of any blockchain – most enterprises aren’t. But it’s still a third-party risk, and making a blockchain quantum-safe involves additional challenges arising from the distributed architecture, further complicated by varying governance models.

You can find more details in our report Quantum Computing Isn’t A Threat To Blockchains Yet, But The Timeline Is Getting Shorter. Forrester clients can request a guidance session or inquiry call.