Forrester’s US end-of-year holiday season forecast for 2024 is live!

Forrester defines holiday retail sales as the purchase of durable and nondurable goods that consumers make during November and December. These sales don’t include automotive and gasoline sales or spending on services, such as food and drink services at restaurants.

What can retailers and brands expect this year? A few highlights from our just-released forecast:

  • US total holiday retail sales in 2024 will top $1 trillion — up 3.7% year over year from 2023. That includes holiday sales made online and offline (e.g., in stores).
  • We forecast that US shoppers will spend about one-quarter of that total specifically online — 10.1% year-over-year growth from 2023.
  • US shoppers will spend the balance of the holiday season forecast in-store/offline — smaller year-over-year growth than in 2023 and 2022 but growth nonetheless.
  • As in previous years, we see that retail specials around events like Amazon’s Prime Big Deal Days have pulled some holiday spend into October.

Favorable macroeconomic factors are bolstering the outlook for 2024 holiday sales. Plus, deflation — whereby prices actually come down — is happening across numerous durable and nondurable goods categories. That said, a recent US Federal Reserve study shows that wealthier households are the primary drivers of US retail sales, supported by rising asset prices, particularly in housing and stocks. The benefits of wage growth are not evenly distributed across all segments of the workforce; blue-collar workers have seen only modest growth in real wages.

To learn more, please see our forecast report. If you’re a Forrester client, please schedule a guidance session or inquiry with me to discuss the forecast in more detail.