Asset-intensive industries like manufacturing and transportation continue to face challenging conditions: energy and raw materials remain expensive in many markets; critical knowledge is often locked inside the heads of an ageing workforce that will soon retire, and; an uncertain geopolitical environment complicates planning for the multi-year commitments needed to invest in factories, machines, and other expensive fixed infrastructure.

Mostly unable to make big bets in the current environment, leaders will be forced to balance incremental improvement and capacity building with a few targeted investments in the technologies they’ll need tomorrow. For 2026, we predict that:

  • Only a few humanoid robots will get paid to do useful work. The internet is full of videos of humanoid robots wrestling, boxing, running, doing back-flips, carrying car parts, folding shirts, or (bizarrely, but probably most frequently) being kicked and shoved by grinning people. Humanoid robot startups continue to sprout around the world, and investors continue to invest. The videos are often impressive, and the advances in both hardware and software are remarkable, but you don’t need many fingers to count the number of commercial deployments of humanoid robots in the real world. In reality, the humanoid form factor creates problems for robotics engineers who struggle with locomotion, balance, power, dexterity, strength, and more: it’s simply easier for other body types to balance, make space for big batteries and big muscles, and all the rest. Humanoid robots offer a compelling form factor to show off the latest advances in hardware and software, and they certainly help persuade investors to get out their cheque books. But almost all of the real commercial adoption of robotics will continue to be in other form factors that are cheaper, more robust, stronger, or safer. Those other form factors benefit just as much as humanoids from the current enthusiasm for embodied or physical AI, which helps robots become more flexible and adaptable than ever: don’t let an amusing video of a pirouetting humanoid distract you from that!
  • US manufacturers will reboot and reskill. Manufacturers continue to rebalance their supply chains, shifting at least some of their manufacturing capacity from lower-cost locations. Done right, this increases resilience and creates opportunities to respond more quickly to changing customer demand. It also aligns to current political enthusiasm (in several geographies) for bringing jobs ‘home.’ Those same manufacturers recognise the challenge of recruiting enough suitably skilled workers to operate their new or upgraded factories, and there’s growing interest in the US and elsewhere in emulating the vocational training and apprenticeship programs that have been offered in countries like Germany for many years. That new workforce won’t be trained overnight – or even by the end of 2026 – which creates a complex challenge: risk the cost and negative headlines of waiting until the domestic workforce is ready, or risk the cost and negative headlines of importing experienced short-term workers from overseas to get the factories working?
  • Robotaxis will drive out of China and the US. Autonomous passenger vehicles routinely carry paying passengers on public roads in the US and China. That’s all. Waymo conducted some trials in Japan, several Chinese providers are testing their vehicles in various Middle Eastern countries, and there have been limited test drives by Chinese and European providers in several European cities. But, to date, paying passengers wishing to hail a robotaxi must first get themselves to one of a small number of US and Chinese cities. That looks set to change in 2026. Chinese robotaxi operators like Apollo Go, Pony.ai, and WeRide expect to launch commercial operations in the United Arab Emirates in 2026, and Wayve will partner with Uber to offer autonomous rides in London. Waymo also recently announced its intention to begin testing vehicles in the UK. Pilots, tests, and operations with safety drivers will continue to spread across China and the US, and out into other geographies. The number of commercial deployments will also begin to grow, but don’t expect to be offered a robotaxi every time you travel. In one interesting quirk that’s worth watching, US-based robotaxi operators are mostly staying close to home while the Chinese operators have big plans to expand overseas. And when they do go abroad (as we’ve seen in the Middle East already), those Chinese operators partner with American ride-hailing companies like Lyft and Uber to offer the customer-facing front end. How long will that last?

Forrester clients can read our full Predictions 2026: Smart Manufacturing And Mobility report to get more detail about each of these predictions, plus two more. Clients can also join a webinar on January 14 or set up a guidance session to discuss these predictions or plan your 2026 smart manufacturing and mobility strategies.

If you aren’t yet a client, you can download one of our complimentary Predictions guides, which cover our top predictions for 2026 across a variety of themes. Get additional complimentary resources, including webinars, on the Predictions 2026 hub.