In 2029, total retail sales of the Europe-5 economies — France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK — will reach €2.7 trillion, per Forrester’s recently published Europe-5 Online Retail Forecast, 2024 To 2029. Additionally, consumers in the Europe-5 countries will spend €565 billion in 2029 on online purchases, accounting for nearly 21% of total retail sales across these five markets. The report provides a five-year forecast for total retail sales, online retail sales, and online retail penetration of 22 product categories for each of the Europe-5 economies, with historical data going back to 2002.

Forrester expects that total retail sales, online retail sales, and offline retail sales in these five countries will grow in line with pre-pandemic growth rates from 2025 and thereafter.

Key Drivers For Growth

  • Improving economic conditions will drive total retail sales growth. A combination of declining inflation, declining interest rates, falling unemployment rates, rising real disposable incomes, increasing retail trade volumes, and a strong rebound in tourism has created a positive economic climate that will support retail sales growth in the Europe-5 countries over the next five years. Discretionary retail sales, which have been subdued over the past two years due to increased spending on essentials because of high inflation, will regain momentum.
  • Price, selection, and convenience will remain key drivers for online retail sales growth. Two-thirds of e-commerce growth in the Europe-5 markets will come from an increase in online spending per buyer — and one-third will come from an increase in the online buyer population. Marketplace-driven cross-border e-commerce growth and the increasing market presence of Chinese e-commerce platforms such as AliExpress, SHEIN, and Temu in Europe will contribute to e-commerce growth.
  • Offline retail sales will continue to grow. Offline retail sales will see a boost in growth through retailers adopting omnichannel strategies to integrate online and offline experiences. Physical stores remain important because many consumers appreciate the tactile experience, the immediacy of purchasing, and the opportunity to try products before committing to a purchase. Additionally, stores function as convenient hubs for services like click-and-collect and returns, enhancing overall customer satisfaction. Retailers such as Decathlon and Zalando are expanding their physical footprint to complement their online platforms, recognizing that physical stores can also drive increased online sales in nearby (“catchment”) areas.

Please contact your Forrester account manager or client success manager to set up a guidance session with me to learn more about e-commerce and overall retail growth in Europe.