TikTok is like a cat clinging on to its nineth life. It has officially survived one executive order, one bipartisan law passed by Congress, one day of darkness, one Supreme Court case, and four ban extensions. The US and China struck an agreement over a deal framework to divest US TikTok from Bytedance, confirmed in a meeting between President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping last Friday. A consortium of investors are part of the deal, including Oracle, Silver Lake, Andreessen Horowitz, and the Murdochs.

US TikTok Will Retain Its Algorithm (Sort Of)

The real question has always been whether the algorithm would come with the sale, and it looks like it sort of will. The American investor group will license a copy of the algorithm that’s then “secured” in the US.

The recommendation system will feel different.

As I’ve said before, TikTok without its algorithm is like Harry Potter without his wand: simply not as powerful. The algorithm is the heartbeat of the app’s addictive experience. TikTok operates on a content graph, not a social graph. It analyzes thousands of user signals to determine what content the user wants to watch, making it hyper relevant and highly addictive. In fact, our data shows that 46% of US online adults under 35 consider TikTok to be addictive – more than any other social media platform. Even though the sale will give US investors a copy of the app’s algorithm, they still need to train it on US data. This means the recommendation engine will feel different to users, which could be a sticking point in the new app. Given the potential players involved in this deal, if the algorithmic scales tip too far toward one political direction, it could send many current TikTok users to other platforms–just like we saw happen with Twitter (now “X”) following its acquisition.

What’s Next?

Once the ink dries on a deal (likely not until 2026), US TikTok users will be forced to move to a new version of the app to continue using the social media platform. Ahead of the sale, Bytedance has been working a new, US-only version of the TikTok app for months, supposedly recreating the algorithm and experience. The jury’s out on whether this new, US-only, app will be a true replicate of the old one, with just as powerful of an algorithm and experience. If it isn’t, consumers and creators will likely revolt and spend more time on other platforms – namely, YouTube Shorts and Instagram Reels.

The other question is whether TikTok will serve ads in both apps for an interim period or move all advertisers to the new app immediately. Uncertainty about the app’s future hasn’t stopped advertisers from investing in the platform. In our Q1 2025 CMO Pulse Survey to US marketing executives, 94% said they’d continue investing in creators and/or media on TikTok in 2025. Advertisers: Closely monitor your TikTok performance and get ready shift into comparable entertainment channels if the “new” TikTok doesn’t live up to its predecessor.

For a recap of the TikTok journey to a deal, check out our past blog posts that break it all down:

  • March 2024: TikTok’s Influence On Young Voters Makes It A Threat To US Democracy And An Asset To Marketers [READ]
  • March 2024: Banning TikTok Creates A Meta Monopoly [READ]
  • September 2024: Today’s TikTok Appeal Pressure-Tests The First Amendment [READ]
  • October 2024: Predictions 2025: The Media Industry Resolves 2024’s Unruly Unknowns [READ]
  • January 2025: A TikTok Ban Is More Likely, But It Might Not Go Dark [READ] –
  • April 2025: TikTok Won’t Get Banned This Week [READ]

Forrester clients: Let’s chat more about this via a Forrester guidance session.