Forrester’s US end-of-year holiday season forecast for 2026 is live! We expect total US holiday retail sales to reach $1.1 trillion in 2026, growing 5.1% year over year. Beneath that headline number, several shifts are reshaping holiday demand, shopper behavior, and retailer priorities.

  • E-commerce will remain the primary driver of holiday retail growth. Forrester expects 2026 holiday e-commerce sales to grow 11.6% year over year, accounting for nearly 60% of incremental holiday retail sales despite representing just over one-quarter of total holiday sales. Online retail entered the second half of 2026 with significantly stronger momentum than in 2024 or 2025. During the first half of 2026, e-commerce sales in the US returned to double-digit growth, supported by online adoption of everyday purchases, faster fulfillment, and improvements in product discovery.
  • Product discovery is expanding beyond traditional retail websites. Shopper intent increasingly determines where consumers begin their digital shopping journeys. Consumers use answer engines for unfamiliar or research-heavy purchases, brand sites for expensive or known products, and marketplaces for routine commodities. Owned websites no longer control the entire journey.
  • Higher-income households continue to drive spending. Consumer spending is becoming increasingly bifurcated. Elevated inflation, slower real income growth, and declining savings are putting greater pressure on lower-income households. By contrast, higher-income households remain in a stronger financial position. This divergence helps sustain overall retail spending despite greater inflationary pressure on lower-income households.
  • Inflation is supporting sales growth more than consumer demand. US holiday retail sales growth will remain healthy in 2026, but a larger share of that growth reflects higher prices rather than stronger underlying demand. Inflation is absorbing a larger share of consumers’ income gains, which means retailers may report solid sales growth even as unit volumes grow more slowly.

Retailers that simplify their value proposition, maintain inventory discipline, and deliver strong digital experiences will be better positioned to win this holiday season.

Forrester clients: Please download your copy of the US Holiday Retail E-Commerce Forecast, 2026 report to learn more and schedule a guidance session with me to discuss the findings in detail. Also, check out our recently published report, A Retailer’s Guide To The 2026 Holiday Season, for our advice on how to prepare in areas such as agentic product discovery, marketing, value-added information, and fulfillment and delivery.

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