Noise about an AI bubble will persist, especially in the US. So what’s the outlook for tech spending in 2026?

Forrester forecasts rapid growth in US technology spending by enterprises and government, including technology staffing costs, to the tune of $2.9 trillion in 2026 with an 8.3% annual growth rate. This contrasts with weaker GDP growth due to economic headwinds and geopolitical tensions. The US effective tariff rate in January 2026 was 18.5%, significantly higher than the 3.5% rate for the rest of the world.

Why does the US see such strong tech spending growth? Here are three reasons:

  • AI infrastructure and software tech investment accelerates. Forrester predicts 25% year-over-year growth in computer equipment in 2026, driven by unprecedented demand for AI-optimized servers. Software will see 11.8% growth, supported by the rapid expansion of functionality across cybersecurity, databases, and AI platforms. Major cloud providers are experiencing double-digit growth in AI workloads, and the adoption of tools like GitHub Copilot is surging. The US leads global AI investment, producing 40 notable AI models in 2024, significantly outpacing China’s 15 and Europe’s three.
  • Sector dynamics intensify. The media and information sector, driven by hyperscaler capex, will capture 43% of US tech spending growth in 2026. Other sectors like financial services, high‑tech manufacturing, healthcare, and retail see the largest potential gains from genAI adoption.
  • AI talent reshapes the tech labor market. AI‑related job postings now represent 20% of US tech roles to help push a 5% growth in CIO staff spending as firms compete for skills in security, data science, and engineering. Most tech jobs will be impacted by AI; the White House’s AI education initiative aims to help students and educators prepare for an AI-driven future.

Looking toward 2030, tech spending by enterprises and government is on track to capture 8.9% of the US economy, far outpacing the global average. But challenges loom — from the environmental impacts of data centers to the reliance on global chip supply chains and the difficulty of converting genAI experiments into clear, measurable returns on investment.

To learn more about the tech investments that companies are making and how this is likely to change over time, Forrester clients can read our new US Tech Market Forecast, 2025 To 2030 report. Also, check out our forecasts that focus on global and European tech spending, and see our new 2025 Global Tech Vendor Tracker to explore the dynamics of vendor growth.

Have any thoughts? Forrester clients can schedule a guidance session or inquiry for more insights and to explore the narratives within this forecast with me (Michael O’Grady).