Forrester’s US end-of-year holiday season forecast is live! What can retailers and brands expect this year? In a word: growth.

2025 has been marked by tariff-driven uncertainty. As we enter the holiday season, retailers are asking: How much will US consumers spend this time around? Will growth slow? Will consumers hold back? Will overall demand remain weak?

To answer these questions, we analyzed the state of the economy, the consumer, and the retail sector in detail as part of building our US retail e-commerce forecast for 2025.

Forrester defines holiday retail sales as purchases of durable and nondurable goods that consumers make during November and December. These retail sales do not include automotive and gasoline sales or spending on services such as food and drink services at restaurants.

Forrester expects holiday retail sales to remain strong in 2025. A few highlights from our just-released forecast:

  • Total US holiday retail sales will grow 4.4% year over year (YoY), reaching $1.05 trillion in 2025. This growth will be slightly higher than in the previous two years.
  • Online US holiday retail sales will grow at 6.7% YoY, reaching $270 billion. Growth will be slower than in the previous two years due to 1) the impact of new tariffs on smaller marketplace sellers and 2) the elimination of the de minimis import exemption, which will likely impact cross-border e-commerce sales. This marks the third consecutive year of single-digit online growth, a shift from earlier years of double-digit gains.
  • US in-store sales will grow at 3.6% YoY, reaching $780 billion. In-store growth will be slightly stronger than in the previous two years, driven by discount stores, supercenters, and warehouse clubs as value-conscious, lower-, and middle-income consumers seek more deals offline.

We have several reasons to be optimistic about 2025 holiday retail growth:

  • US macroeconomic indicators remained stable in H1 and lower than the historical averages: Headline CPI averaged 2.6%, with the national unemployment rate at 4.1%.
  • Real GDP growth will be moderate in H2 2025 but remain positive.
  • US consumers held over $1 trillion in savings in Q2 2025, consistent with the previous two years.
  • Consumer purchasing power remains strong as disposable income per capita growth continues to outpace inflation.
  • Headline inflation will likely increase slightly but will not deter holiday spending.
  • A potential interest rate cut to address the cooling labor market will help improve sentiment.

Forrester clients: Please see our US Holiday Retail E-Commerce Forecast, 2025 report and schedule a guidance session with me to discuss the forecast in more detail.