Announcing The Forrester Wave™: Commerce Services, Q1 2026 and the upcoming Commerce Services Buyer’s Guide  

Consumers are becoming accustomed to scanning social feeds for product inspiration, finding the right replacement part on answer engines, and using self-checkout at their local stores. Business buyers use AI beyond search for tasks like detailed product comparisons. The Forrester Wave™: Commerce Services, Q1 2026 reveals how commerce services providers are rewriting long-standing commerce strategy playbooks and prompting leaders to reach today’s buyers through AI-powered commerce transformations.  

Per Forrester’s Business And Technology Services Survey, 2025, 55% of global services decision-makers tell us that they consider third-party providers as strategic partners when they have experience working with that provider and trust that they deliver on their commitments. Another 43% of these global decision-makers confirm that they will use a services provider for agentic AI in the next 12 months. Before signing on the dotted line, commerce leaders need to ask the tough questions to validate how prospective services providers will cocreate the next generation of experiences for them — specifically, how providers will deliver:  

1. Dual optimization for humans and agents. Tomorrow’s storefronts and back offices must balance emotional experiences for humans and data-driven experiences for AI agents. On one side are human buyers looking for a new pair of shoes for a special occasion, and on the other side are agentic shoppers running errands for household supplies or spare parts. Twelve of the 21 reference customers we interviewed as part of our Wave evaluation validated that they are working with their services providers to implement AI and agentic commerce use cases. The catalyst for the agentic commerce transformation: their commerce services partners.

Recommendation: Ask your services partner to point to last year’s innovations in commerce experiences for humans, its agentic commerce roadmap, and its longer-term vision and approach toward innovation. Don’t settle for vague promises: ask for percentages, case stories, and the nitty-gritty details.

2. AI-powered operations. Don’t let the steady drumbeat of agentic commerce fool you — even in 2030, over two-thirds of US retail sales will still happen in brick-and-mortar stores. The resilience of your commerce operation will hinge on how you harness machine learning and AI for capabilities like demand forecasting, inventory optimization, and order management. Providers have already woven such innovations into vertical-specific playbooks, giving commerce teams the scale and resilience to grow amid geopolitical and market shocks. Twelve of the 21 reference customers we interviewed described AI-powered solutions — like machine learning smoothing out fulfillment bottlenecks — being implemented by their services providers and impacting their P&L in 2026.  

Recommendation: Ask your services partner about the depth of its vertical expertise in commerce operations and what best-in-class looks like. How will its AI solution drive resiliency and agility for your commerce team?

3. Modern business models. We are now in an era of performance-based contracts and commerce operating systems — the software, data, and talent required to bring commerce moments to life — which has become the new commerce services run contract. You are no longer buying consulting hours or ad clicks; you’re betting on a business model built on technology, talent, and data. Ten of the 21 leaders we spoke with credited their services providers with quantifiable top-line lift.  

Recommendation: Crunch the numbers carefully — is the traditional commerce SaaS software build/run model still lucrative for your organization, or should you explore operating systems built by a services provider? Start with your biggest use cases to find the right solution.

If you are a Forrester client interested in discussing the evolution of your commerce strategy for humans and agents, book an inquiry or guidance session with my colleagues and me. We are available to discuss topics such as commerce strategy, agentic commerce, commerce operations, and services provider selection.