In some countries, the debate around technological sovereignty has been framed as a race toward independence. Governments have invested billions in sovereign cloud initiatives, national AI programs, semiconductor manufacturing, and critical infrastructure under the implicit assumption that sovereignty means self-sufficiency. But that assumption is detached from reality.

Our latest research demonstrates that even the world’s most technologically advanced nations remain dependent on foreign software and hardware, supply chains, talent, and infrastructure. Total technological sovereignty is out of reach — not just for smaller economies but even for global powers. The real challenge is not achieving independence. It’s managing dependence. Here are a few important findings:

  • The sovereignty debate has accelerated. Geopolitical tensions, regulatory requirements, and concerns about digital control have moved sovereignty discussions from policy circles into boardrooms. Public cloud buyers are increasingly considering sovereignty requirements when selecting technology providers while governments are investing heavily to reduce exposure to foreign influence, yet the global technology ecosystem remains deeply interconnected.
  • China and the United States enjoy the highest levels of technological sovereignty. These nations possess strong positions across multiple strategic domains, including cloud infrastructure, artificial intelligence, software development, technology talent, and data center capacity, and yet both continue to rely on external resources, markets, and supply chains.
  • Europe continues to face significant dependencies. Despite Europe’s regulatory influence and industrial capacity, foreign hyperscaler cloud providers dominate much of the European cloud market. Despite being a leader in other types of semiconductor design, the region struggles to compete in advanced semiconductor design and manufacturing and remains dependent on external digital platforms and ecosystems. These dependencies cannot be eliminated overnight through policy initiatives alone.

A more practical approach is emerging for both nations and enterprises

Many governments and organizations face a difficult reality: Sovereignty cannot be about owning every layer of the technology stack. Instead, it must be about maintaining agency — the ability to make strategic choices without being constrained by another country’s political, legal, or economic decisions.

Business and technology leaders should ask themselves three questions:

  1. Which workloads are so critical that external control would create unacceptable business or national risk?
  2. Where are we dependent on a single provider, technology, or jurisdiction?
  3. What viable alternatives exist if those dependencies become problematic?

The answer will rarely be to abandon global technology providers entirely. Instead, organizations will increasingly rely on hybrid architectures, sovereign cloud offerings, open-source technologies, and multivendor strategies to balance innovation with resilience.

Total sovereignty will remain elusive

Over the next five years, sovereignty will increase gradually across many countries thanks to investments in cloud infrastructure, AI, semiconductors, and energy systems. But those gains will be offset by enduring dependencies in areas such as software, talent, rare earth processing, and global supply chains. Total sovereignty will remain elusive. That is why governments and enterprises will stop asking, “How can we become fully sovereign?” and start asking a more useful question: “Which dependencies are acceptable, which are strategic risks, and how do we ensure that we always have a choice?”

In the age of AI, cloud, and geopolitical competition, sovereignty is not about eliminating dependence. It is about managing it.

Reach out to Forrester and schedule a guidance session or an inquiry to help guide your digital sovereignty strategy and dig deeper into the broader concept of sovereignty.

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