No one can deny that 2023 was the year of generative AI (genAI). It had all the hallmarks of a breakthrough year, with industry activity such as new products and mergers as well as enterprise activity centered around feeling the pressure to get moving with genAI. So the real question is what genAI, and AI in general, will bring in 2024: Will it live up to the massive amount of hype we’ve seen in 2023?
The short answer is yes. 2024 will be another banner year for AI overall, ushering in a new era of intentional AI, where gimmicks and technical experimentation of genAI give way to more focused and strategic initiatives. In fact, this trend is already underway. In our July 2023 AI Pulse Survey, 67% of enterprises indicated that they are folding genAI into their overall AI strategy. Another shift the survey revealed is AI moving away from a practice of data science and model building to what we’re seeing now, with 70% of enterprises exploring genAI under technology organization leadership.
With all that in mind, this year’s AI predictions are the culmination of moving AI, and specifically genAI, away from the cubicles of unicorn technologists to instead focus on filling pent-up demand that will drive real business growth. Here’s three of our 2024 predictions around AI:
- Sixty percent of workers will use their own AI to perform their job and tasks. Employees go around their organization’s security policies because they feel it is the most efficient way of doing what they need to get done. AI will be no different. In 2024, shadow AI will spawn as organizations struggling to manage regulatory, privacy, and security issues won’t be able to keep up with widespread bring-your-own-AI (BYOAI). In addition to just genAI tools, employees will also use personally owned AI-infused software for work, adding to the BYOAI boom in the coming year.
- Eighty-five percent of enterprises will expand AI with open source models. The 2023 explosion of genAI experimentation and adoption was driven in large part by the proprietary models of OpenAI. As enterprises get more into the nitty gritty of building with genAI, however, many of them are turning to open source models such as GPT-J, BERT, and FLAN-T5. The release of portable model families such as Llama 2, marketplaces such as Hugging Face, and corporate investments into these initiatives will further accelerate this trend. It won’t mean the end of proprietary models, but it will lead to more options for building out your genAI strategy.
- A major insurer will offer a specific AI risk hallucination policy. GenAI’s propensity for hallucinations or errors changes the calculus for risk management and complicated risk transfer strategies. Insurers have tried to close coverage loopholes while expanding their list of exclusions around AI hallucinations. But given genAI’s expected growth, vanguard insurers will be more willing to cover unique and hard-to-insure risks like hallucinations. In fact, hallucination insurance will be a big money maker in 2024.
Read our full Predictions 2024: Artificial Intelligence report to get more detail about each of these predictions, plus two more bonus predictions. Set up a Forrester guidance session to discuss these predictions or plan out your 2024 AI strategy.
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