Did Our Predictions For 2022 Come True?
Each year, Forrester analysts get together to predict the future across dozens of topics critical to our clients’ success. No, we don’t use a crystal ball — instead we combine data, decades of experience, and the bold calls our clients expect to chart likely paths for the year to come.
As we gear up to announce our 2023 predictions on Tuesday, October 25, 2022, we’re first looking back at how our predictions for 2022 fared. Here are some of our biggest hits and misses:
The prediction: A new form of creative partner will emerge from the collision of precision and persuasion marketing strategies in 2022.
The reality: Several high-profile M&As made this prediction come true. Deloitte acquired Madras to up their content creation capabilities, Publicis Groupe acquired Profitero, and WPP acquired Cloud Commerce Group a month after our prediction was made.
The prediction: Customers will want over half of pandemic-era services to become the new normal.
The reality: Customers loved pandemic-era services and want them to continue. Over half of all digital banking customers told us they’ll continue to use digital services, even if they’d never done so pre-pandemic.
Edge, IoT, And Networking
The prediction: The chip shortage will impede overall IoT market growth by 10% to 15%.
The reality: If anything, this estimate was conservative. Chip shortages impeded many sectors, but especially the auto industry, which is a heavy user of IoT technologies. Disruptions were so bad that some plants had to reprioritize production lines and retrofit designs to work with whatever chips were available.
The prediction: Politicians will have to give up their dreams of a sovereign European cloud, but GAIA-X’s transparency and data usage standards will conquer the world.
The reality: No meaningful services have launched on GAIA-X. However, all major hyperscalers from outside Europe have partnered up with European firms to create more services that are compliant with European cloud security standards, like Germany’s C5.
B2B Marketing And Innovation
The prediction: Marketing-sourced metrics will spiral downward toward irrelevance.
The reality: This one is a miss due to a technicality. Over the course of 2022, we saw a sharp decrease in dashboards that include marketing-sourced metrics — from 47% down to 40%. B2B Revenue Waterfall™ adoption continues to increase, with big names like Google and SAP now on board. So, our prediction was directionally correct, but change isn’t happening as quickly as we anticipated.
Cybersecurity And Privacy
The prediction: At least one security vendor collapses in an Enron-Theranos-esque scandal.
The reality: At the start of 2022, the security vendor environment was rife with the elements that often precede serious malfeasance — loads of capital, fevered levels of investment, and financial incentives to go public. Fortunately, no scandal came to pass. Unfortunately, the bubble began to deflate due to economic headwinds. Fewer IPOs occurred, and VC dollars slowed.
Tech Leadership And Innovation
The prediction: Ten percent of tech execs will be goaled on revenue.
The reality: Although the pandemic accelerated the move from cost savings to generating revenue and growth through technology, there isn’t enough evidence for us to conclude that droves of tech executives will be goaled on revenue anytime soon.
Be the first to get our predictions for 2023, which promises to be a year of market challenges, bold decisions, and disruptive innovation. Sign up for an alert to get notified when we release our 2023 predictions on Tuesday, October 25.